STRATEGIC PRIORITIES OF RESTORING UKRAINE'S EXPORT POTENTIAL: MILITARY AND POST-WAR DIMENSIONS

Abstract

The article is dedicated to a comprehensive study of the transformation processes of Ukraine's export potential under the influence of full-scale armed aggression and global geopolitical shifts. The purpose of the work is the theoretical justification and development of strategic directions for restoring the state's export capacity as a foundation for macroeconomic stability and social welfare. The author's contribution consists in the systematization of methodological approaches to assessing losses in the export sector and identifying new adaptive behavior models of foreign economic activity subjects. The study uses a comparative analysis of trade dynamics for the period 2021–2024, which revealed a critical agrarization of the export structure against the backdrop of deindustrialization in the eastern regions. The scientific novelty of the results lies in the justification of the "twin transformation" concept of export, which involves synchronous digitalization of customs procedures and greening of production in accordance with EU standards. The practical significance of the results is determined by the formulation of specific recommendations for government bodies to strengthen the role of the Export Credit Agency in insuring military risks and integrating logistics routes into the TEN-T network. The main conclusions of the study indicate that restoring potential is possible only if there is a transition from a raw material model to stimulating the export of goods with high added value and preserving human capital through active labor market stabilization policies. It has been proven that the successful implementation of the Ukrainian Maritime Corridor and the Solidarity Lanes initiative ensured the survival of the economy in 2022–2023 and created conditions for export growth to USD 77 billion by 2030. The article contains forecast scenarios for GDP growth and indicators of the social consequences of reduced revenue, allowing for the use of materials to improve the National Export Strategy. The study further elaborates on the necessity of attracting foreign direct investment into high-tech industries to bridge the gap between actual export figures and the unrealized potential of the national economy, which is estimated at billions of dollars.