ДЕТЕРМІНАНТИ БЕЗРОБІТТЯ НА РЕГІОНАЛЬНИХ РИНКАХ ПРАЦІ УКРАЇНИ: ПАНЕЛЬНЕ МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ДИНАМІКИ ТА МІЖРЕГІОНАЛЬНИХ ВІДМІННОСТЕЙ

Larysa Zomchak; Maksym Snihur

doi:10.32782/2786-8141/2025-13-17

Larysa Zomchak Ivan Franko National University of Lviv https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4959-3922
Maksym Snihur Ivan Franko National University of Lviv https://orcid.org/0009-0004-6601-1594

DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2786-8141/2025-13-17

Keywords: unemployment, labor market, region, model, panel data, regional development, regional disparities, employment, income, econometric model, regression analysis

Abstract

This study analyzes the labor market in Ukraine and examines the factors determining the level of unemployment. In the context of significant regional disparities and structural transformations within the national economy, a quantitative assessment of the determinants of unemployment at the level of individual oblasts becomes particularly relevant. The objective of this article is to identify and quantitatively evaluate the influence of the main socio-economic factors, specifically, the average monthly wage, the average registered number of full-time employees, and the disposable income per capita, on the number of unemployed working-age individuals across 24 Ukrainian oblasts during the period 2002–2021. To achieve this objective, econometric modeling techniques using panel data were employed. Based on the results of the Hausman test and the Wald test, the specification of the fixed effects panel data model was justified and selected. This model allowed for controlling unobserved, time-invariant individual characteristics specific to each oblast (fixed effects) that might influence the unemployment rate, thereby enhancing the correctness of the quantitative estimates. The estimated model demonstrated a high explanatory power (R2 = 0.83). The statistically significant influence of all included macroeconomic factors was confirmed: The average monthly wage showed the inverse relationship with unemployment: an increase in wages by 1 thousand UAH leads to a decrease in the number of unemployed by an average of 2.4 thousand individuals. The average registered number of full-time employees and disposable income per capita exhibited non-intuitive positive correlations with unemployment (coefficients of +0.03 and +0.4, respectively). These indirect links are attributed to complex dynamics within the Ukrainian labor market, such as the impact of labor migration, skill mismatches, and the existence of a shadow economy and non-labor income sources that reduce the incentive for official employment. The results provide a quantitatively substantiated basis for developing a differentiated state employment policy. The identified regional variations and the non-intuitive relationships between employment/income and unemployment underscore the need for targeted programs.

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DETERMINANTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE REGIONAL LABOR MARKETS OF UKRAINE: PANEL MODELING OF DYNAMICS AND INTER-REGIONAL DIFFERENCES

Abstract

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