METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING RISK RESISTANCE INDICATORS OF ENTERPRISES IN WAR TIMES AND ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT
Abstract
The article develops and substantiates a methodology for calculating risk tolerance indicators of enterprises in conditions of martial law and anti-crisis management as a tool for ensuring their continuity of activity, financial stability and adaptability to external shocks. It is proven that in conditions of military aggression, high uncertainty, disruption of logistics chains, loss of assets and sales markets, the formation of a comprehensive system for quantitative assessment of the level of risk tolerance of an enterprise is of key importance. The study clarifies the essence of the concept of "enterprise risk tolerance" as an integral characteristic of its ability to identify, neutralize and compensate for the impact of internal and external risks with minimal losses for strategic development. A structural and logical model for assessing risk tolerance is proposed, based on a combination of financial, operational, investment and management indicators. Special emphasis is placed on the methodology for calculating the system of risk tolerance indicators, which involves: forming a list of relevant risk factors; grouping of indicators by blocks (financial stability, liquidity, business activity, profitability, diversification, personnel and logistical stability); normalization of indicators; determination of weight coefficients; calculation of the integral risk tolerance index based on an additive or multiplicative model. The methodology involves the use of autonomy coefficients, coverage, capital maneuverability, operating leverage, diversification coefficients of suppliers and sales channels, the level of resource reservation, indicators of digital adaptability and speed of management response. The feasibility of using a scoring scale of assessment and scenario analysis to determine the limit values of indicators in crisis conditions is substantiated. An algorithm for interpreting the integral risk tolerance index with the allocation of zones of critical, unstable, satisfactory and high levels of stability is proposed. It is proven that the implementation of the proposed methodology in the anti-crisis management system provides timely diagnostics of threats, increases the validity of management decisions and contributes to the formation of an adaptive model of enterprise development in martial law. The results obtained can be used in the practice of strategic and financial management, as well as in further scientific research into the problems of ensuring the economic stability of enterprises.
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