DATA MINING APPROACHES TO WHOLESALE ELECTRICITY MARKET SEGMENTATION IN THE CONTEXT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF DECENTRALIZED SYSTEMS

Abstract

The article develops and empirically verifies the methodological foundations of Data Mining approaches for segmenting Ukraine's wholesale electricity market under wartime conditions as a tool for substantiating sustainable development strategies of decentralized energy systems. The study aims to identify stable market regimes through multidimensional analysis of temporal, pricing, and balancing indicators to formulate differentiated recommendations for the configuration of decentralized energy hubs. The empirical base is formed using official data from JSC "NEC Ukrenergo" and the Market Operator for the period 2022–2026. An ensemble of clustering methods was applied: the probabilistic EM algorithm and the deterministic k-Means, which minimized the risk of random classification and enhanced the reliability of the identified patterns. The prepared dataset comprises 46,776 hourly observations. As a result of the segmentation, three functionally distinct clusters were identified. The first cluster is characterized by evening temporal alignment, maximum day-ahead and balancing market prices alongside a minimal structural deficit, indicating system operation at technical capacity limits. The second covers periods of reduced demand with the lowest price metrics and a noticeable power deficit, forming an economically viable window for energy storage. The third demonstrates a price-stabilizing effect of solar generation despite the largest market gap, confirming the compensatory role of renewable sources during daylight hours. Based on the derived parametric profiles, practically oriented recommendations were formulated for the priority deployment of energy storage systems, wind, and solar power plants, accounting for temporal windows of maximum marginal efficiency. The proposed market state typology transforms price volatility from an investment risk factor into a tool for proactive management of distributed assets, thereby enhancing energy resilience, optimizing balancing costs, and substantiating post-war recovery strategies for Ukraine's power system within the framework of circular economy principles and sustainable development.