METHOD FOR SCENARIO-BASED STRENGTHENING OF NATIONAL SECURITY THROUGHT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MILITARY-ECONOMIC COMPONENT OF STATE DEFENSE PREPAREDNESS
Abstract
This article presents a scientifically grounded method for developing scenarios to strengthen Ukraine’s national security by optimizing the economic support for its armed defense, taking into account the military-economic capabilities of the adversary. It is argued that the level of national security is determined by the interaction of economic, financial, technological, and managerial factors that shape the adaptive structure of the defense economy; therefore, the relevance of this study stems from the need to improve the efficiency of defense resource management in the context of hybrid warfare and the economic burden on the state. The proposed method consists of eight sequential blocks covering the construction of a theoretical foundation, standardization of indicators, assessment of stability and effectiveness, development of development scenarios, optimization of the security level under limited resources, managerial adaptation, forecasting of dynamics over time, and system integration. This approach takes into account the resource potential of Ukraine and the adversary, allowing for a quantitative assessment of the security situation and the identification of optimal trajectories for its strengthening. Particular attention is paid to the scenario-based approach, which enables the forecasting of alternative paths for national security development depending on changes in economic, financial, and technological conditions. To this end, a system of indicators is presented that can help determine the optimal combination of resources, financial balance, and innovative potential to achieve the highest level of security without unduly straining the economy. The practical significance of the results lies in the creation of a toolkit for strategic planning, evaluating the effectiveness of defense spending, and modeling national security scenarios; the proposed approach can be used by government agencies to enhance the resilience of the security sector and shape Ukraine’s long-term defense development policy. The proposed approach contributes to making management decisions more well-founded and ensures flexibility in responding to threats and challenges, as well as in assessing the military-economic potential of the adversary.
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