SCENARIO APPROACH TO PLANNING OF ENTERPRISE ACTIVITIES IN CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of scenario planning of enterprise activities under conditions of uncertainty. The relevance of the topic is due to the sharp increase in the level of uncertainty in recent years, as well as its destructive impact on the performance of enterprises. The article provides a description of the modern business environment and an assessment of the level of uncertainty, explains the concept of the VUCA world, reveals the reasons for the need to apply scenario planning of enterprise activities. An internationally accepted methodology for quantitatively assessing the level of uncertainty of the business environment in the world is presented, a graph of the international uncertainty index since 2008 is presented. The approaches of scientists to determining the causes of uncertainty are studied, including the essence of the concept of "black swan" events and their main features. The reason is revealed, due to which strategies with a high potential for success also have a high risk of failure, the essence of the concept of "strategic paradox" is revealed. The fundamental impossibility of predicting the future and the need to prepare the enterprise for various future scenarios are emphasized. The principle of necessary uncertainty is revealed as a way to minimize the negative consequences of unpredictability of changes in the company's operating environment. The essence of scenario planning is revealed and the theoretical justification for its application to prepare the enterprise for various possible scenarios and minimize the negative impact of uncertainty is given. The elements of the scenario planning system are given. The importance of dialogue and engagement of scenario planning participants in achieving a result is revealed. The importance of learning for the formation of effective strategic thinking is emphasized, the stages of Kolb's learning cycle are given. The relationship between scenario planning and the company's performance is shown. The sequence of scenario planning implementation is analyzed, the characteristics and typical tools of its stages are given. Promising directions for further research on this topic are indicated.